ECMWF trend points to milder cooling for Crete than mainland Greece, meteorologist says
A new 15-day trend analysis from the European forecasting model ECMWF points to a gradual drop in temperatures across much of Greece in the coming period, though it does not show a sudden, nationwide change in the weather, meteorologist Thodoris Kolydas said.
According to Kolydas, the shift will be felt gradually and will vary significantly by region. In some parts of the country, high temperatures are expected to persist until around September 11–12.
In Northern Greece, the median maximum temperature is projected to fall from 29.6°C to 26.6°C, the analysis shows. A sharper decline is forecast for Western Greece, where the equivalent figure is expected to drop from 34.2°C to 27.2°C.
Western Greece also shows the strongest rain signal in the forecast, with a 47% probability of at least 5 mm of rainfall on September 13, according to the ECMWF trend.
Temperatures in Central Greece and Thessaly are heading toward 28°C, with moderate chances of rainfall, the data indicate. The temperature decline is expected to be slower in Eastern Sterea and Attica, while a significant drop is forecast for the Peloponnese.
By contrast, the cooling in the Aegean and Crete is expected to be milder, with the rain signal remaining particularly weak in the region, according to the forecast.
Strong winds forecast in the Aegean
The available forecasting data do not point to a prolonged, nationwide rain episode, Kolydas said. In the Aegean, however, winds are expected to strengthen significantly in places, following a pattern already noted in forecasts of northerly winds reaching 8 Beaufort off Crete as autumn weather approaches.
A notably strong signal points to winds of at least 6 Beaufort near Andros on September 8, the forecast shows.
Kolydas noted that the 15-day trend mainly reflects tendencies and probabilities, with uncertainty increasing the further out the forecast extends. As a result, he said, the data for the final days of the 15-day period should be treated with greater caution and reassessed as those dates approach, a pattern consistent with earlier updates showing clear skies and meltemi winds persisting over the island in recent days.
