New storm could drop Chania’s average October rainfall within 48 hours, meteorologist warns
A storm expected to hit parts of Greece, including Crete, on Tuesday, October 13 and Wednesday, October 14 could bring some areas rainfall totals comparable to or exceeding their average for the entire month of October within just 48 hours, according to meteorologist Giorgos Tsatrafyllias.
In Chania, local rainfall highs may approach 70-80mm, Tsatrafyllias said, an amount comparable to the region’s average monthly rainfall of about 80mm for October. Similar local highs are forecast for parts of the Dodecanese, where Rhodes has an average October rainfall of around 70mm.
Worst-affected mainland areas
The latest forecast data indicate that the greatest concern is focused on Magnesia, particularly the Pelion area, the Sporades islands, and northern and central Evia, according to Tsatrafyllias. In these areas, 48-hour rainfall totals could locally exceed 100mm, with some forecast models showing as much as 130-150mm.
For comparison, Volos receives an average of about 65mm of rain for the whole of October, Skiathos about 75mm, and Chalkida about 60mm, Tsatrafyllias noted.
In Attica, forecasts point to 20-50mm of rain in places, with possible local totals of 60-80mm in areas hit by stronger storms, compared with an average October rainfall of about 50mm for Athens. The most intense weather is expected from Tuesday midday through Wednesday morning. Even 20-30mm of rain can cause local flooding in Attica, with the risk increasing significantly above 60mm, Tsatrafyllias said, adding that extensive paving, buried streambeds and inadequate drainage infrastructure worsen the situation.
In the northern Aegean, where average October rainfall is just 40mm in Mytilene and 45mm in Lemnos, significant local exceedances are also possible, according to the meteorologist. Strong rain and storms are forecast as well for western Greece, the Ionian islands, Aitoloakarnania, Achaia, Ilia and Chalkidiki, with local totals potentially reaching 50-70mm. Although these amounts fall short of average monthly rainfall in several of those areas, flooding cannot be ruled out if the rain falls over a short period.
Duration, not just totals, drives flood risk
Flood risk is determined not only by total rainfall but mainly by the intensity, duration of the rain, and the condition of the soil and drainage infrastructure, Tsatrafyllias said. The greatest concern centers on areas where heavy rain is expected to persist over a longer period — Magnesia, the Sporades and Evia — raising the risk of stream overflows, local flooding and landslides.
The storm follows a period of unsettled weather across Crete, after forecasters warned of winds up to 8 Beaufort and rain earlier in the week, and comes as the island’s saturated ground continues to keep flood risk elevated following recent storms. Authorities in Rethymno have separately said they remain on alert for a new storm wave while still assessing damage from earlier flooding in Mylopotamos.
