Crete braces for new storm system with heavy rain from Wednesday, forecasters say
A new spell of unsettled weather is expected to hit Greece from Wednesday, September 30, bringing strong rain, storms and a marked drop in temperatures, with Crete forecast to be among the areas most affected, meteorologists say.
Meteorologist Klearchos Marousakis said the change in conditions will bring a new wave of bad weather with frequent rain and local storms, mainly in the eastern and southern parts of the country, while western areas will see milder conditions. He added that temperatures will remain relatively low for the season, with noticeable morning and evening chill giving a more autumnal feel, a pattern similar to the storms and winds up to 8 Beaufort already forecast for Greece from Wednesday.
Meteorologist Theodoris Kolydas offered a similar outlook for the next 24 hours, describing an organized low-pressure system accompanied by colder air masses, rain and strong storms, and warning that some areas could see intense weather develop within a short period, according to a post on his account.
Based on the joint 00 UTC run from September 28, 2026, a comparison of the ICON-EU, ECMWF and GFS forecast models shows the main area of concern shifting gradually southward, with Crete appearing most frequently at the peak of rainfall projections for Greece, Kolydas said. However, he noted that the intensity forecasts differ considerably between the models, particularly from Wednesday onward.
Day-by-day outlook
On Wednesday, September 30, all three models increase expected rainfall over Greece but diverge on the location and intensity of the peak. ICON-EU projects 75.7mm for Crete, GFS projects 37.2mm also for Crete, while ECMWF places its main peak over Sterea Ellada at 50.2mm. Kolydas said this points to a clear shared signal of worsening conditions, though with low confidence on exactly where the heaviest totals will fall.
Thursday, October 1, shows the strongest shared signal on location, with all three models placing their peak rainfall over Crete. ICON-EU and ECMWF are considerably more aggressive, forecasting 101.2mm and 91.0mm respectively, while GFS is more conservative at 22.3mm. Kolydas said the spatial agreement is clearly stronger than the agreement on intensity, and that Crete stands out as the area requiring the most attention, even as the expected rainfall totals remain uncertain.
Crete remains the focus in all three models on Friday, October 2, according to the forecast. ECMWF gives 68.2mm, ICON-EU 37.4mm, and GFS just 6.6mm. Kolydas said this reflects good spatial convergence but a very wide range in intensity, which he attributed partly to the longer forecast horizon for that day.
Overall, Kolydas said the models agree more on the general trend than on exact rainfall amounts. Monday and Tuesday are expected to be clearly milder, while from Wednesday, September 30, the rain signal strengthens noticeably, with Thursday, October 1, showing the strongest shared interest, mainly for Crete. The most consistent element across the models, he said, is the southward shift of the main rainfall activity toward southern Greece and particularly Crete, while the greatest uncertainty concerns how intense the phenomena will actually be.
