Forecaster predicts stronger meltemi winds and rising fire risk in Greece through mid-August

The seasonal meltemi winds are expected to strengthen significantly from Sunday, according to a forecast by meteorologist Thodoris Kolydas. He said current forecasting models point to stable, hot weather with no significant rainfall through the Dekapentavgoustos holiday around August 15.

In a post on his forecasting page, Kolydas said no extreme weather event is expected, but rather a typical and persistent meltemi that will initially blow at moderate strength before intensifying. He said the most difficult conditions will occur in the central and southern Aegean, where strong winds will raise sea swell and complicate shipping.

Warning over strong gusts

Kolydas specifically warned of gusts that could be 10 to 25 km/h stronger than the average wind speed. He said this effect is expected to be more pronounced in sea straits, on the leeward side of islands, near mountainous terrain, and in areas where local wind acceleration occurs. He advised increased caution for anyone operating small boats or planning sea travel.

Summer conditions expected to persist to mid-August

The warm, dry weather pattern is expected to continue over the coming days, including around the Dekapentavgoustos period, according to the forecast. Kolydas said the main features will be extensive sunshine, high temperatures, an absence of significant rainfall, and strengthened north winds in the Aegean.

He said the general trend in forecasting models points to the persistence of high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, with no indication of organized severe weather at a nationwide level. Local cloud formation is possible mainly during the warmer hours of the day over the mountains of northern and central Greece, though no extensive weather phenomena are expected.

Temperatures up to 39°C on the mainland

The highest temperatures are expected mainly on the mainland, where the mercury could locally reach 37 to 39 degrees Celsius, Kolydas said. On the islands, maximum temperatures are expected to remain lower due to sea breezes and north winds. In the Aegean, the meltemi is forecast to reach 6 to 7 Beaufort at times, and locally up to 8 Beaufort.

Increased fire risk

The combination of high temperatures, drought and strengthened winds is creating particularly severe fire-weather conditions, according to the forecast. An increased risk of fire outbreaks and, in particular, rapid fire spread is expected in areas including eastern Sterea Ellada, Attica, Evia, the Cyclades, and parts of the Peloponnese.

Kolydas said north winds are considered the most significant risk factor, as they can rapidly spread flames and substantially hinder firefighting operations.

What ECMWF and GFS models show

The latest data from the ECMWF and GFS forecasting models converge on the continuation of warm, dry weather, without a substantial change that could bring a major temperature drop or widespread rainfall, according to the forecast. However, because this is a medium-range forecast, details regarding exact temperatures and wind intensity could change in subsequent updates.

The one element expected to remain constant, Kolydas said, is the persistence of the meltemi and the need for increased caution at sea and in rural areas.